“Developed countries to have introduced new technology such as AIㆍ robot, Labor productivity down”
Ye Jin Soo | jinye@ | 2018-02-20 11:27:44
Labor productivity of developed countries has declined in the introduction of advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and robots. Investments in new digital technologies are expanding, but productivity is declining.
According to a total economic database of the US Conference Board obtained by the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade (KITA) on February 19, the labor productivity growth rate of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) rose by 1.2 % and 1.3 % from 2005 to 2017. Labor productivity refers to the output or value added by a worker for a certain period of time.
According to the statistics released by the Korea National Statistical Office in December last year, the nation`s average labor productivity in 2015 is KRW 244.8 million (2010: KRW 246.1 million) compared with the same period last year.
The Institute of Industrial Science and Technology (KIET) cites these statistics in the "New Digital Economy Controversies and Implications" report, which seems to fit the "paradox of solow" that technological progress has not been reflected in productivity until now, but after the transition, and the intangible capital accumulation effect will lead to a significant increase in productivity.
Meanwhile, Yun Woo-jin, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade, said, "Dichotomy is a mistaken view, such as unpredictable optimism about the future of the new digital economy and excessive pessimism." The effect of digital technology is small in the short term and large in the long term. "The infinite growth theory that technology optimists argue is technically impossible, but impossible in a real economy where substitution between goods and production factors is limited." On the contrary, pessimistic economists argue that growth stagnation is a result of productivity enhancement of digital technology and intangible assets "He added.
According to BBVA Research`s Global AI Expert Survey, which was obtained by the Institute of Industrial Science and Technology, about 70% of respondents thought that it would take 10 to 30 years for artificial intelligence to reach the general use stage of data (stage 2). 42 percent answered in 2030, and 25 percent answered in 2050. When we sum up the responses, the year that corresponds to neutral (50% probability of realization), which is halfway between optimism and pessimism, was predicted to be 2040.
A representative of the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade said, "Even if artificial intelligence reaches the second stage, another technology to be offered to consumers through products and services. It is pointed out that the ability of the machine to judge and process the machine is not sufficient at the present technology level in the commercialization of the Alpha high and the autonomous drive vehicle.
There has been a growing debate over whether robots and artificial intelligence will increase unemployment in the long run. According to the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade (KIEP), the IGM Forum, run by the University of Chicago, recently surveyed prominent economists, with 38 percent saying the new digital revolution will increase long-term unemployment in developed countries. The 19 percent said they would not do so, even if there are a lot of missing jobs, they expect long-term jobs to be offset. 29% answered `uncertain`. This means that productivity will change according to the speed of replacement of labor and the speed of labor market adaptation in the transition period in which the new digital revolution is going on.
The Institute of Industrial Science and Technology, in relation to the hypothesis that the machines armed with new digital technology will quickly replace human labor and the jobs will be seriously threatened, said, "In the transition period where technology diffusion starts, the substitution effect is overwhelming, A stagnant labor market is inevitable."
"The government needs to improve its market system in a labor-friendly manner in response to new corporate forms and management methods armed with information and communication technologies and digital networks," said Yoon. "In order to prevent job polarization and wage deterioration, We need a more robust digital safeguard, like wage insurance, along with traditional social security schemes like unemployment insurance."
By Ye Jin Soo jinye@
[ copyright ⓒ The Digitaltimes ]
According to a total economic database of the US Conference Board obtained by the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade (KITA) on February 19, the labor productivity growth rate of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) rose by 1.2 % and 1.3 % from 2005 to 2017. Labor productivity refers to the output or value added by a worker for a certain period of time.
According to the statistics released by the Korea National Statistical Office in December last year, the nation`s average labor productivity in 2015 is KRW 244.8 million (2010: KRW 246.1 million) compared with the same period last year.
The Institute of Industrial Science and Technology (KIET) cites these statistics in the "New Digital Economy Controversies and Implications" report, which seems to fit the "paradox of solow" that technological progress has not been reflected in productivity until now, but after the transition, and the intangible capital accumulation effect will lead to a significant increase in productivity.
Meanwhile, Yun Woo-jin, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade, said, "Dichotomy is a mistaken view, such as unpredictable optimism about the future of the new digital economy and excessive pessimism." The effect of digital technology is small in the short term and large in the long term. "The infinite growth theory that technology optimists argue is technically impossible, but impossible in a real economy where substitution between goods and production factors is limited." On the contrary, pessimistic economists argue that growth stagnation is a result of productivity enhancement of digital technology and intangible assets "He added.
According to BBVA Research`s Global AI Expert Survey, which was obtained by the Institute of Industrial Science and Technology, about 70% of respondents thought that it would take 10 to 30 years for artificial intelligence to reach the general use stage of data (stage 2). 42 percent answered in 2030, and 25 percent answered in 2050. When we sum up the responses, the year that corresponds to neutral (50% probability of realization), which is halfway between optimism and pessimism, was predicted to be 2040.
A representative of the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade said, "Even if artificial intelligence reaches the second stage, another technology to be offered to consumers through products and services. It is pointed out that the ability of the machine to judge and process the machine is not sufficient at the present technology level in the commercialization of the Alpha high and the autonomous drive vehicle.
There has been a growing debate over whether robots and artificial intelligence will increase unemployment in the long run. According to the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade (KIEP), the IGM Forum, run by the University of Chicago, recently surveyed prominent economists, with 38 percent saying the new digital revolution will increase long-term unemployment in developed countries. The 19 percent said they would not do so, even if there are a lot of missing jobs, they expect long-term jobs to be offset. 29% answered `uncertain`. This means that productivity will change according to the speed of replacement of labor and the speed of labor market adaptation in the transition period in which the new digital revolution is going on.
The Institute of Industrial Science and Technology, in relation to the hypothesis that the machines armed with new digital technology will quickly replace human labor and the jobs will be seriously threatened, said, "In the transition period where technology diffusion starts, the substitution effect is overwhelming, A stagnant labor market is inevitable."
"The government needs to improve its market system in a labor-friendly manner in response to new corporate forms and management methods armed with information and communication technologies and digital networks," said Yoon. "In order to prevent job polarization and wage deterioration, We need a more robust digital safeguard, like wage insurance, along with traditional social security schemes like unemployment insurance."
By Ye Jin Soo jinye@