NAND flash expected to be oversupplied next year… ‘Chicken game’ to be in fire?
Park Jung Il | comja77@ | 2018-01-05 10:25:39
It is expected that the 2019 NAND Flash memory semiconductor market will start full-fledged `chicken game` (two cars rushing against each other or an extreme competition where everyone will fail if one does not give up). Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Toshiba and Intel are expected to oversupply as the NAND flash expansion plant begins operation around 2019.
While competition is inevitable in the industry, if the price competitiveness is secured, the huge HDD market can be replaced with a NAND flash-based solid state drive (SSD) to be.
According to market researcher DRAMExchange and the industry on January 4, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Toshiba, Intel, and Yangtze Memory Technology Company (YMTC), a subsidiary of Chingwai Unigroup in China, will increase NAND flash production around 2019, Is expected to begin.
In late December, Toshiba plans to build a fab 7 for the production of more than 96 3D NAND flashes, just after the agreement with Western Digital (WD). The plant is expected to start operation in the second half of 2019.
YMTC is also planning to mass-produce its 32-step 3D NAND flash initial product from the second half of this year, and then to prepare for mass production of 64-stage NAND products. Intel plans to expand its 3D NAND flash capacity to its current level by the end of the year after completing the second phase plant expansion in China`s Dalian. SK Hynix is also building a new M15 NAND flash factory in Cheongju with the goal of mass production early next year. SK Hynix, like Toshiba, is expected to produce 96 or more 3D NAND flashes at this plant.
"According to DRAMExchange DRAM overcrowding may occur in the 3D NAND flash market since 2019. We expect that 2D nand flash will remain in some niche markets." DRAM Exchange expects the NAND flash supply / demand situation to change to 2.1% in 2016 due to a surge in demand for servers and mobile when the supply of NAND flash exceeds 2.3% in 2015, and this supply shortage is expected to continue until this year after last year.
The industry is likely to become more price competitive since 2019, but instead expects a steep growth in the SSD market using NAND flash. According to market researcher IHS Markets, the price of SSD, which was almost 10 times the difference from HDD last year, is expected to be tripled in 2021. As a result, the SSD market is expected to grow at an annual average rate of 12.8% from 2016 to 2021 by factory shipments. On the other hand, HDD market growth rate is expected to be only 1.9% in the same period.
Meanwhile, an industry expert stated, "The 2D NAND market is already oversupplied, but the high value-added 3D NAND flash market for servers and mobile phones is still in short supply," he said.
"As NAND is a growth industry, it is inevitable to overcompensate to some extent, but if the price drops due to such competition, PC makers will introduce more SSDs, so demand will be even higher," said another industry official. It can survive with the competitiveness of production technology with micro-processing which leads to secure stable profitability like DRAM."
By Park Jung Il comja77@
[ copyright ⓒ The Digitaltimes ]
While competition is inevitable in the industry, if the price competitiveness is secured, the huge HDD market can be replaced with a NAND flash-based solid state drive (SSD) to be.
According to market researcher DRAMExchange and the industry on January 4, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Toshiba, Intel, and Yangtze Memory Technology Company (YMTC), a subsidiary of Chingwai Unigroup in China, will increase NAND flash production around 2019, Is expected to begin.
In late December, Toshiba plans to build a fab 7 for the production of more than 96 3D NAND flashes, just after the agreement with Western Digital (WD). The plant is expected to start operation in the second half of 2019.
YMTC is also planning to mass-produce its 32-step 3D NAND flash initial product from the second half of this year, and then to prepare for mass production of 64-stage NAND products. Intel plans to expand its 3D NAND flash capacity to its current level by the end of the year after completing the second phase plant expansion in China`s Dalian. SK Hynix is also building a new M15 NAND flash factory in Cheongju with the goal of mass production early next year. SK Hynix, like Toshiba, is expected to produce 96 or more 3D NAND flashes at this plant.
"According to DRAMExchange DRAM overcrowding may occur in the 3D NAND flash market since 2019. We expect that 2D nand flash will remain in some niche markets." DRAM Exchange expects the NAND flash supply / demand situation to change to 2.1% in 2016 due to a surge in demand for servers and mobile when the supply of NAND flash exceeds 2.3% in 2015, and this supply shortage is expected to continue until this year after last year.
The industry is likely to become more price competitive since 2019, but instead expects a steep growth in the SSD market using NAND flash. According to market researcher IHS Markets, the price of SSD, which was almost 10 times the difference from HDD last year, is expected to be tripled in 2021. As a result, the SSD market is expected to grow at an annual average rate of 12.8% from 2016 to 2021 by factory shipments. On the other hand, HDD market growth rate is expected to be only 1.9% in the same period.
Meanwhile, an industry expert stated, "The 2D NAND market is already oversupplied, but the high value-added 3D NAND flash market for servers and mobile phones is still in short supply," he said.
"As NAND is a growth industry, it is inevitable to overcompensate to some extent, but if the price drops due to such competition, PC makers will introduce more SSDs, so demand will be even higher," said another industry official. It can survive with the competitiveness of production technology with micro-processing which leads to secure stable profitability like DRAM."
By Park Jung Il comja77@